Six years after Galwan: A militarised LAC, a redefined relationship

The situation in Eastern Ladakh demonstrates a significant shift in border management dynamics. Previously, the Line of Actual Control was defined by patrolling up to designated points (Patrolling Points 1 to 65). The new reality involves demilitarised buffer zones, which alter the LAC's profile and restrict access for both troops and local pastoralists. This represents a form of salami slicing or grey zone warfare (incremental actions short of war to achieve strategic aims) by China. To counter the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) tactics and the growing China-Pakistan nexus, India requires an integrated approach. The author advocates for an integrated border defence force under the Indian Army's operational control and the accelerated implementation of the Vibrant Villages Programme (a scheme for comprehensive development of border villages) to enhance security and prevent depopulation in strategic border areas.

The India-China relationship has entered a phase of 'Armed Co-existence,' reminiscent of the post-1962 era. The Galwan clash shattered decades of confidence-building mechanisms (CBMs) established since the 1993 Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement. A key challenge is the divergence in priorities: India insists that resolving the border issue is a prerequisite for normalising ties, while China attempts to decouple the border dispute from broader bilateral engagement, particularly trade. China's actions, such as enacting the Border Defence Law in 2021 to consolidate control and renaming places in Arunachal Pradesh (which it claims as Zangnan), are deliberate attempts to legitimise its territorial claims. Despite these tensions, mutual necessity forces engagement in multilateral forums like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

A critical vulnerability in India's strategic posture is its deep economic reliance on China. Despite the military standoff, bilateral trade surged past $151 billion, with a massive trade deficit of$112 billion in China's favour. This imbalance is driven by India's manufacturing sector's structural dependence on cheap Chinese imports, particularly in critical sectors like active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), electronics, and green energy components. Conversely, India's exports are primarily raw materials like ores. This economic asymmetry complicates India's strategic response. Managing the "expansionist Dragon" requires a long-term China policy grounded in realpolitik (politics based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations), balancing firmness on the border with strategic patience and efforts to reduce critical dependencies through initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat.