A costly policy error by China should be a cautionary tale for India

This article highlights a critical shift in India's demographic trajectory, moving away from the traditional narrative of overpopulation. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime) falling below the replacement level of 2.1 indicates a shrinking future population. The uneven nature of this decline creates a profound demographic divide. While southern states like Sikkim (1.0), Kerala (1.3), and Tamil Nadu (1.3) are exhibiting demographics similar to aging developed nations, northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are sustaining the national average. This divergence has significant implications for future workforce availability, eldercare demands, and internal migration patterns. For UPSC, this touches upon GS Paper 1 syllabus on population and associated issues, specifically the demographic dividend and its transition into demographic aging.

The uneven demographic transition presents complex challenges for federalism and political representation. States that successfully implemented family planning measures and achieved lower fertility rates now face the prospect of a relatively smaller, older population. In contrast, states with higher fertility rates will possess a younger, growing population. This demographic imbalance could lead to a political-economy problem regarding the distribution of economic resources and political power. If delimitation of constituencies is tied strictly to population size, southern states could face reduced political representation in the Parliament, potentially penalizing them for successful demographic management. This scenario emphasizes the need to rethink formulas for resource allocation and political representation to ensure equitable outcomes in a demographically diverse nation, a core theme in GS Paper 2 under Federalism.

The EAC-PM paper calls for a fundamental paradigm shift in India's governance approach to population management. For decades, policies have focused on population stabilization and control, utilizing incentives and disincentives. The paper strongly recommends repealing these measures, such as sterilisation-linked payments for Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) and disqualifications related to a two-child norm. This highlights the concept of policy inertia, where governments continue pursuing outdated objectives even after the underlying realities have changed. The lesson drawn from China's One-Child Policy is that coercive or strongly incentivized population control measures can establish social norms (like smaller families) that are extremely difficult to reverse later through pro-natalist policies. For UPSC, this is a prime example for GS Paper 2 on governance reforms and the evaluation of government policies, emphasizing the need for evidence-based policymaking that adapts to evolving demographic realities.