360° UPSC Mains Analysis

Global map of heatwave risk and agricultural vulnerability

The analysis focuses on the intensification of heatwaves, which are prolonged periods of excessive heat often linked to atmospheric blocking patterns. These events exacerbate soil moisture deficits, increase evapotranspiration rates, and threaten the physiological limits of crops and livestock across various climate zones.

The report addresses global agrifood systems across diverse terrains, including arable plains, coastal fisheries, and forested regions. It highlights the vulnerability of the global 'ecumene' (inhabited land) to rising thermal extremes that disrupt the delicate balance of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

Agrifood systems support the livelihoods of over 1 billion people globally. Extreme heat threatens the productivity of primary resources—agriculture, fisheries, and forestry—which are the backbone of food security (SDG 2) and economic stability in developing nations.

Under Schedule 7, 'Agriculture' falls under the State List (Entry 14), while 'Prevention of extension from one State to another of infectious or contagious diseases or pests affecting men, animals or plants' falls under the Concurrent List (Entry 29). Food security is a shared responsibility, with the Union setting standards and providing grains (NFSA) while States manage distribution and local agricultural adaptation.

India may resort to export bans or restrictive duties on staples (e.g., non-basmati rice or wheat) under the Foreign Trade Policy 2023 to ensure domestic food security, potentially affecting the global trade balance and India's status as a reliable exporter.

Extreme heat triggers 'Heatflation,' potentially increasing CPI food inflation by 60-100 basis points. Agriculture's contribution to India's GVA (approx. 18-19%) faces high volatility, while increased energy demand for cooling and irrigation risks widening the fiscal deficit through higher power subsidies.

The Primary sector is most affected, specifically cereal production (Wheat/Rice) and horticulture. The Secondary sector (Food Processing) faces supply chain disruptions and higher input costs, while the Tertiary sector (Insurance) anticipates a surge in indemnity claims.

Threatens the livelihoods of nearly 50% of the Indian workforce dependent on agriculture. Reduced crop yields lead to a decline in real rural wages and increased demand for distress employment under MGNREGA.

The historical vulnerability of global food systems traces back to colonial-era extractive agricultural policies that prioritized commercial cash crops over subsistence farming, exemplified by the Great Bengal Famine of 1943. Post-independence, the Indian Constitution addressed this through Article 48, directing the State to organize agriculture and animal husbandry on modern, scientific lines. Early international cooperation saw the establishment of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1945 to coordinate global food security efforts.

India's policy shifted from 'ship-to-mouth' dependence to self-sufficiency via the Green Revolution in the mid-1960s, utilizing High-Yielding Variety seeds. In 2008, the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) was launched, featuring the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) to adapt to rising temperatures. More recently, the 2016 Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) was introduced to provide a safety net against climate-induced crop failures like heatwaves.

The 'Dust Bowl' of the 1930s in North America serves as a historical parallel where extreme heat and drought led to the total collapse of regional agrifood systems and mass migration. Similarly, the 1816 'Year Without a Summer' illustrates how sudden climatic shifts can trigger global food price spikes and social unrest.

The struggle for food sovereignty was central to the freedom movement, with the 1943 famine exposing the British Raj's failure to protect Indian lives, thereby strengthening the demand for Purna Swaraj.

Extreme heat accelerates land degradation and desertification, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, undermining the ecological integrity of fragile ecosystems. It disrupts the phenology of flora and the thermal tolerance limits of aquatic species in inland fisheries and coastal mangroves.

The analysis utilizes Agrometeorological modeling and satellite-based Earth Observation systems to track soil moisture deficits. It underscores the role of biotechnology in developing heat-tolerant crop varieties and the WMO's 'Early Warnings for All' initiative to mitigate disaster impacts.

The report aligns with the Paris Agreement's objective to limit global warming to 1.5°C, highlighting that current carbon emission trajectories exceed safe thresholds. It emphasizes the increasing frequency of 'wet-bulb temperature' events that threaten the physiological limits of livestock and human labor in agrifood systems.

The report highlights critical threats to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) by showing how heatwaves destabilize food supply chains. It also impacts SDG 1 (No Poverty) as extreme heat disproportionately affects the livelihoods of over a billion people dependent on agriculture.