360° UPSC Mains Analysis

Strait of Hormuz

India's agricultural cycle is heavily dependent on the Southwest Monsoon, requiring timely and intensive application of inputs like fertilizers and diesel-powered irrigation. The geological scarcity of rock phosphate, potash, and mineable sulphur in India forces a structural dependency on imports from geologically rich regions like West Asia and Russia.

The geographical focus spans the Indian subcontinent and West Asia, linked by the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. The strategic maritime corridor of the Strait of Hormuz serves as the primary conduit connecting India to West Asian energy and fertilizer feedstocks.

Natural gas and crude oil are critical feedstocks for nitrogenous fertilizers (urea) and farm mechanization (diesel). The Strait of Hormuz acts as a vital trade route for these resources, making Indian food security highly sensitive to maritime chokepoint disruptions.

Under the Seventh Schedule, Agriculture is a State subject (Entry 14, List II) and Preservation of Stock is also a State subject (Entry 15, List II). However, the regulation of essential agricultural inputs like fertilizers and petroleum products falls under the Concurrent List (Entry 33, List III) and Union List (Entry 52, List I). This creates a shared governance framework where the Center regulates critical inputs (fertilizers, diesel) while the States manage agricultural implementation, highlighting the cooperative federalism required to address the 'fossilisation' vulnerabilities.

India's high import dependency—importing 100% of MOP, approximately 60% of DAP, and 13% of urea in FY24—makes it highly vulnerable to trade route disruptions like the Strait of Hormuz. To mitigate these risks, India has secured long-term bilateral agreements for FY26, including annual supplies of 31 lakh tonnes from Saudi Arabia, 30.10 lakh tonnes from Russia, and 25 lakh tonnes from Morocco.

The geopolitical conflict in West Asia and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threaten to widen India's current account deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit due to rising import bills for crude oil and natural gas (the primary feedstock for urea). In FY25, the final fertilizer subsidy budget escalated to ₹1,91,836 crore to absorb global price shocks and protect farmers. Additionally, a spike in fuel and fertilizer prices exerts upward pressure on WPI and CPI inflation, particularly food inflation.

The primary sector (agriculture) is directly impacted by rising input costs of diesel (for tractors and harvesters) and chemical fertilizers, threatening crop yields. The secondary sector, specifically the domestic fertilizer manufacturing industry, faces supply-chain bottlenecks for raw materials like rock phosphate and sulphur, while the chemical formulation industry faces shortages of petroleum-derived solvents.

Escalating diesel and fertilizer prices increase the cost of cultivation, squeezing net farm incomes and impacting rural wages. Supply chain disruptions could lead to localized shortages of key fertilizers like DAP during sowing seasons, potentially causing crop failures and driving up retail food prices for consumers.

Following the devastating Bengal Famine of 1943, the colonial administration launched the 'Grow More Food' campaign to increase agricultural output, initiating the early use of chemical fertilizers. At independence, India inherited a severely depleted agricultural sector, leading to a heavy reliance on food imports under the United States' PL-480 program in the 1950s and 1960s. To overcome this chronic food insecurity, the Indian government made a strategic decision in the mid-1960s to transition from traditional, animal-driven farming to a high-yielding, input-intensive agricultural model. This structural shift laid the foundation for the 'fossilisation' of Indian farms, replacing organic manure and draught animals with petroleum-derived fertilizers and diesel-powered machinery.

Post-independence policy shifted from institutional reforms like land redistribution to technology-driven growth with the launch of the Green Revolution in 1965-66, which heavily subsidized chemical fertilizers and farm mechanization. To sustain this model and ensure affordable inputs, the government introduced the Retention Price Scheme (RPS) in 1977, guaranteeing returns to fertilizer manufacturers and keeping retail prices low. In the 21st century, recognizing the severe ecological degradation and import vulnerabilities of fossil-fuel dependency, the policy has pivoted toward sustainable alternatives. This is evidenced by the launch of the Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) in 2015 to promote organic farming, and the PM-PRANAM scheme in 2023 to incentivize states to reduce chemical fertilizer consumption.

The current vulnerability of Indian agriculture to West Asian geopolitical conflicts mirrors the 1973 global oil shock, which caused a massive spike in naphtha and crude prices, severely disrupting India's fertilizer production and forcing the government to overhaul its subsidy regime. Similarly, the 'ship-to-mouth' crisis of the mid-1960s, where India was vulnerable to US foreign policy shifts due to food import dependence, parallels today's vulnerability where food security is tied to volatile global natural gas and fertilizer supply chains.

The transition away from traditional, self-sustaining, bovine-based farming directly contrasts with Mahatma Gandhi's vision of 'Gram Swaraj' (village self-sufficiency), which advocated for decentralized, organic, and animal-driven agriculture to prevent rural dependence on external industrial inputs.

The intensive use of chemical fertilizers (NPK) and petroleum-based pesticides leads to agricultural runoff, causing eutrophication in nearby freshwater ecosystems and wetlands. This chemical leaching degrades soil biodiversity, destroying beneficial soil microflora and earthworms, which are critical for maintaining soil structure and organic matter.

The underlying science involves the Haber-Bosch process, which synthesizes ammonia from atmospheric nitrogen and hydrogen (derived from natural gas or naphtha) under high pressure and temperature. Additionally, the formulation of crop protection chemicals relies on organic chemistry to synthesize active ingredients, which are then dissolved using petroleum-derived solvents and emulsifiers to ensure stability and uniform spraying.

The 'fossilisation' of agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions through diesel-run tractors, energy-intensive Haber-Bosch synthesis of urea, and direct soil emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent GHG with 273 times the warming potential of CO2. This undermines India's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which target a reduction in emission intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels.

This transition aligns with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by ensuring long-term food security through sustainable soil management, and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) by reducing chemical inputs. It also supports SDG 13 (Climate Action) by mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, which is being addressed through the National Mission on Natural Farming (NMNF), approved in November 2024 as a standalone centrally sponsored scheme to scale up the Bharatiya Prakritik Krishi Paddhati (BPKP).

The 'fossilisation' of agriculture directly impacts farmers' livelihoods by trapping them in a cycle of high input costs and debt, especially during global supply chain disruptions. The transition away from draught animals has reduced organic manure availability, forcing farmers to buy expensive chemical alternatives, which degrades soil health and compromises long-term food security and health.

The right to food and a clean environment are protected under Article 21 (Right to Life) of the Constitution of India. Furthermore, Article 48 of the Directive Principles of State Policy (DPSP) directs the State to organize agriculture and animal husbandry on modern and scientific lines, while Article 48A mandates the protection and improvement of the environment.

As a District Magistrate, I would face the ethical conflict of balancing short-term food security and agricultural productivity (which relies on subsidized chemical inputs) against long-term ecological sustainability and soil health. Additionally, there is a tension between promoting mechanization for economic efficiency versus protecting the livelihoods of landless agricultural laborers who depend on manual harvesting.

Small and marginal farmers (comprising over 85% of Indian landholdings, predominantly from SC/ST and EWS categories) are highly vulnerable to input cost inflation caused by geopolitical shocks, as they lack the capital to absorb sudden spikes in diesel and fertilizer prices. Women agricultural laborers face severe livelihood displacement due to rapid mechanization (combines and tractors) replacing manual harvesting. Additionally, the health of rural women and children is disproportionately affected by exposure to chemical pesticides and contaminated groundwater.