India’s return to its Central Asian neighbourhood

Central Asia, often termed India's extended neighbourhood, is a vital geopolitical pivot situated between Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan. Historically, India’s engagement was constrained by an unstated policy of deferring to Russian influence, but the 2015 Prime Ministerial visit to all five republics marked a strategic shift towards active engagement, later institutionalized through the India-Central Asia Dialogue. The region's countries are actively seeking to diversify their foreign relations beyond the dominant influence of Russia (whose hold is weakening) and China (whose economic leverage is expanding rapidly). This creates a strategic opening for India, which is viewed favorably as a pluralistic, democratic partner without hegemonistic ambitions. However, India must navigate the complex regional dynamics, including the presence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where it must assert its interests despite the strong presence of the China-Pakistan axis. A key challenge remains the lack of direct overland connectivity, a void Pakistan attempts to exploit by emphasizing religious ties to isolate India. Consequently, India's strategy focuses on building partnerships in economic, technological, and cultural domains to consolidate its strategic footprint.

A primary driver of India's interest in Central Asia is internal security, particularly concerning the threat of terrorism and radicalization emanating from the Af-Pak region. The Central Asian republics, especially Uzbekistan, share India's uncompromising stance against extremism. Uzbekistan's geographical proximity to and deep understanding of Afghanistan make it a crucial partner for India in monitoring the Taliban and mitigating cross-border security threats. The lack of direct physical access remains a significant bottleneck; thus, India is actively developing alternative connectivity routes, notably the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port in Iran, aiming to bypass Pakistan. The evolving political landscape in Afghanistan necessitates constant reassessment of these connectivity strategies. Furthermore, India utilizes its membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to address regional security challenges, specifically through the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), despite the complexities of engaging with Pakistan and China within the same forum.

Central Asia is rich in natural resources, including hydrocarbons and critical minerals like uranium, which are essential for India's energy security and economic growth. The region presents significant opportunities for trade, investment, and collaboration in sectors such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure. Currently, bilateral trade is constrained by connectivity issues, but initiatives like the Ashgabat Agreement aim to facilitate smoother transit of goods. India seeks to offer a development model based on capacity building and technology transfer, contrasting with China's often debt-heavy infrastructure investments. By enhancing economic ties, India not only secures vital resources but also strengthens its geopolitical standing in a region that is increasingly looking for diverse partners for its socio-economic development.