Unsafe space: On the U.S. and ‘on-orbit space control weapons‘

The deployment of space weapons by the U.S. significantly escalates the militarization of space, transforming earth's orbit into a potential theater of conflict. This move is part of a broader arms race involving the U.S., Russia, China, and India, all developing counter-space capabilities. The primary legal framework, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST), is increasingly viewed as inadequate. While Article IV of the OST prohibits placing nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction in orbit, it does not explicitly ban conventional weapons. This creates a legal gray area, especially given the destructive potential of conventional weapons on critical satellite infrastructure. Furthermore, the Liability Convention of 1972, designed to address damage caused by space objects, struggles with the complexities of modern, autonomous, and dual-use satellites operated by commercial entities. This underscores an urgent need for updated multilateral governance, potentially driven by platforms like the U.N. Open-Ended Working Group on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS), to define clear rules of engagement and accountability in space.

The article highlights a critical shift in space technology: the increasing reliance on dual-use technology (satellites serving both civilian commercial needs and military operations) and autonomous systems (satellites using artificial intelligence to navigate or respond to threats without direct human control). The integration of AI in orbital assets creates significant risks of accidental escalation. If an autonomous satellite interprets the approach of another steerable satellite as a hostile act and initiates a defensive strike, the lack of transparency and defined protocols could lead to conflict. Furthermore, the vulnerability of satellite networks, which underpin global communications, financial systems, and energy grids, makes them attractive targets. The concept of space control, which encompasses both offensive and defensive capabilities to ensure freedom of action in space and deny it to adversaries, is becoming central to military doctrines globally, necessitating a robust understanding of these technologies for strategic security.

From an Indian strategic perspective, the militarization of space directly impacts national security. India, having demonstrated its own anti-satellite (ASAT) capability through Mission Shakti in 2019, recognizes the necessity of space deterrence. The reliance of modern militaries on satellites for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and secure communications means that an attack on space assets is tantamount to an attack on critical national infrastructure. The ambiguity surrounding the U.S. deployment—specifically what constitutes a "hostile action" and the exact capabilities of these "defensive" weapons—contributes to strategic instability. The blurring lines between commercial and military space assets also complicate the application of international humanitarian law (IHL), which traditionally seeks to protect civilian infrastructure during conflicts. India must balance its need for secure access to space with active participation in shaping new international norms to prevent an unconstrained arms race in orbit.